probabilistic thinking

In rationality, from a to z, eliezer yudkowsky often describes how rationality (more or less what I call probabilistic thinking) can be like a martial art. It is an interesting comparison, though I don’t know if I agree with all parts of it.

A prerequisite for probabilistic thinking may be numerate thinking.

As this numerate thinking gets richer, it blends in to probabilistic thinking.

probabilistic thinking is a “theory” of applied epistemology.

Whatever you want, I suppose. Even if it doesn’t matter, life is still some sort of game. I submit probabilistic thinking as the first attempt to answer how to play the game better.

probabilistic thinking

Some combination of optimization, system design, and probabilistic thinking.

Growing Thoughts

These are still very raw and undeveloped, but have a lot of content connected to them. Currently, both these growing thoughts seem to fall under the umbrella of think more scientifically, and more morally.

friendly utilitarianism
probabilistic thinking

Can probabilistic thinking be a unified theory for reason and belief updating? It would need to fully subordinate bayes’ theorem and solomonoff induction (the latter of which may already be a unified theory of its own).

is there a connection here to probabilistic thinking?

A prerequisite for probabilistic thinking may be numerate thinking.

probabilistic thinking requires thinking mathematically, at least in broad strokes. I’ll try to map out the technical underpinnings of probabilistic thinking.

Right now to me, it feels like teaching Statistics and Probability to students that aren’t using the fields professionally is less effective than teaching them probabilistic thinking (i.e. practical Bayes)

probabilistic thinking